Best viewed in FIREFOX. Click charts to ENLARGE.
New Hampshire boasts a long tradition of independent thinkers. She remains the only state in the nation without a mandatory seat belt law for adults. That expands "Live Free or Die" into new horizons.
When I meet with young people (as patients), I ask them about what sort of major health problems they might foresee as adolescents and young adults. Some have the insight to recognize alcohol, smoking, and drug abuse, accidents (sometimes linked to the former), and sexually transmitted diseases. Few recognize mental health issues while learning to cope with disappointment, dating violence, eating disorders, and health maintenance as important. While encouraging independence, as parents we also have to emphasize the difference between exploration and risk-taking.
Is investing different? The previous Federal Reserve Chairman encouraged risky behavior.
Will the subprime mortgage damage Greenspan's legacy? Great minds think alike? Americans have short attention spans (see Paris Hilton), so chances are whoever is Federal Reserve Chairman when a major dislocation hits (e.g. 1987), they will take the blame. And Congress, the SEC, and the American people (always the least and last informed) will cry "how could this happen?" Nice one, Barry.
Let's look around. Here's the SPY weekly chart, with a 'decision' point at the 13 period EMA, and an MACD divergence/downturn. The 13 period EMA hasn't turned down yet, but Alex Elder's Impulse system wouldn't be pounding the drums long here (in my opinion).I reviewed the ISM data the other day, and new data comes out this week. Waiting for Godot? With the ISM up against 55, why expect rate relief?
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Would you buy this chart? This is the monthly chart of the VIX (Volatlity Index) with 20 and 40 period moving averages, a Richard Russell 'trick'. Lack of volatility means liquidity, volatility means reduced liquidity. Reduced liquidity can come from a variety of sources, including private equity woes, rate rises, investor time preference changes, the alphabet soup crisis (CDO, CLO, etc). As I am too quick to remind, "he who panics first, panics best."The SP500 dropped 0.05% this week, the Russell 2000 fell 0.13% this week, Dow Transports 0.18%, the Homebuilders ETF fell 4.7%, and the NDX rose 0.63% and the Dow Industrials rose 0.36%.
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If we look at the ETF "Kings" (or Queens if you prefer) from the TD Absolute (tm) perspective, where do the 38% retraces come into play? That would be in the land Far, Far, Away...Disney would have to call that remake "Dreck".__________________________________________________________________________________
But you, sir, are an ungracious buffoon! Okay, I don't expect any short-term challenge of Tom DeMark's first case scenario. Where are we NOW, Saturday June 30th, relative to the maximum high of the major volume ETFs? After all, this is where the market gets driven these days? Can you say hyperdriven?RKH, the least skyward among the group is at 92 percent of its peak.
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Listen, you dirty buzzard, you are displaying meaningless data, saying that 2006 is within one percent of 2007. Be real. If you examine the same data as a percentage of its annual range, you still see figures that might not offend, but could surprise.__________________________________________________________________________________
4.0 sailor? The same type of analysis for the Dow Industrials components show that 13 of the 30 members are in the top 15 percent of their range. Step right up, sir, "everyone's a winner". Are all these great companies executing, or has something else happened?__________________________________________________________________________________
Ponderous data, dear readers, ponderous. Trader Vic reminds us something about following the false train of hope to the end of the line, and jumping off just before the abyss arises. Of course, we don't know where that lies. In other words, we can see the liars, not the abyss.
Good trading and great risk management to all.
Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.
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1 comments:
Excellent post on where we stand at this time. Thank you.
Aside: Now when my doctor looks at my x-rays and asks about my past, I can answer no one emphasized “the difference between exploration and risk taking.”
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