Monday, January 12, 2009

Deflation Day Strikes with a Vengeance

Deflation strikes with a vengeance, as Mr. Market tells Dr. Bernanke and his crew to stuff it.

The winners are volatility (VIX) and the anti-carry trade (yen).

Losers are all over the place...especially metals (TCK, PCU, SLW, AEM) and some energies and energy-related stocks (USO, EWZ). I've been long HIG LEAP calls and somebody needed to get out, really badly. Goldman Sachs (GS - how do they make money now, anyway?) is off over 3.5 percent, but ABOVE the low end of the TD Range Projection (78.93)...so at least it has that going for it. Of course, we have no idea where the TARP money is going, and I'd like to know that...as a taxpayer of course. But it's more secret than a Congressman's home phone number.

  • Breadth ain't minty
  • The VIX is up
  • But the TNX has crawled off it's lows, maybe a head fake?
Will the yen (FXY) fill the gap and head towards 114? I'm not going to take the other side of that trade for now.

Maybe it's been real and maybe pretty, but not real pretty for me so far.

Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.

1 comments:

The Premium Collector said...

I'm enjoying your blog. Keep up the good work.

BTW I post as blue bluff on the Cara site. Bill is the man IMO

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