Monday, July 13, 2009

"Do Bad Ideas Tend to Die?"

Click charts to ENLARGE.

The Boston Globe presented a thought-provoking article yesterday called "The Next Conservative Thinkers." Within, the author notes that Megan McArdle says "bad ideas do tend to die." She qualifies that by noting that it may take a long time...

Consider slavery. Throughout history, groups have repeatedly sought to justify and enforce their 'superiority' by controlling and restricting the lives of groups and individuals based on 'arbitrary' criteria, such as race, sex, or ethnicity. Even within the context of the Declaration of Independence, slavery flourished until ended not by democracy but war.

We like to apply labels to people and ideas because we favor simplicity. We can discard a good idea if it comes from the wrong source or embrace mediocrity if it originates in our camp. If conventional wisdom violates common sense, which do we choose?

Market wisdom emanates from the higher levels of the cortex or the limbic system? Today, the Goldman Sachs upgrade created a synaptic tidal wave of bullishness, reflected by breadth and by a run to the financials.
Goldman Sachs (GS)...a gap and run with volume, but still below support. One analyst I spoke with today discussed GS July 150-160 one by two spreads, but I wasn't biting. I had concerns over a lack of risk control. I did take some refuge in some August vertical GS spreads.
_________________________________________________________Bank of America (BAC) got an even larger (percentage-wise) boost with volume and an MACD cross from the collateral drift.
_______________________________________________________________I like these kinds of trades, for Hologic (HOLX). HOLX made a big pullback to the .618 retrace and I took entry in the (highly) oversold area. Tom DeMark would remind us, "you can't do size, at highs", not that I'm doing that much size.
____________________________________________________________Could these high volume ETFs be making turns?

Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.

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