Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Sun Spots

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Took a small trade today...is it low risk or plain crazy?Went long some August FSLR out of the money calls with FSLR at 140. Profoundly oversold with MACD divergence and (not shown) a recent DeMark Sequential (tm) buy.
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Here's the Gann Square of 9, with FSLR topping out at 205. 360 degrees around the square counterclockwise brings us to 152, and another 90 degrees to 140. If FSLR were to rally, I could either sell the initial calls, or potentially sell calls to create a vertical spread "free trade".
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Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.

You're Welcome, Goldman Sachs

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Goldman Sachs made spectacular profits, partly because of their trading skill and business acumen, and in large part because the US taxpayer bailed out their counter-party risk. The market asks the question that in a deleveraging world, what will Goldman's future look like.

The US dollar teased and finished at the high end of the channel on the hourly chart.
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The US dollar had a counter-trend rally against the Canadian dollar (CAD), but that looks tired...(net long the Canadian dollar via FXC)
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Goldman Sachs might have juiced the recent action, but it's been CRUDE (August 30 minute futures above) that have correlated better with overall market action. The central planners have fought the twin "perils" of volatility and deflation.
__________________________________________________________The SP500 rallies to resistance (the 50 period moving average)...with underwhelming volume.
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What will be Wednesday's theme? Thirty-one of ninety-two of the "100 MUST" space show NR7 setups (narrowest range of seven days)...that means an above average chance of price expansion (no direction predicted).

Monitoring the "triple threat" of the US dollar, Crude, and financials should help direct us.

Best news? The "small cap" rallying space has crept upward in number.

Worst news? The 100 MUST Gann signal low space tonight checks in at zero.

Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.

Process Thinking

Ask yourself a few questions:

  • Do I have an edge (technical, fundamental, something else?). I'm a visual trader. So be it.
  • Can I "do" what the market "does"?
  • What is my personality? Is my plan matched to it?
  • Can I exploit that edge (what is my make-up)?
  • Can I hold winners?
  • Can I sacrifice losers (throw the small losses back into the ocean) purging my 'mistakes'?
  • Will I let myself get blown up?
  • Am I willing to pay the price, do the study, the analysis, to compete against the best?
  • Can I accept the "rules of the game?"
  1. It's not designed to be "fair".
  2. Many major corporations exist for the management's benefit, not the shareholders.
  3. You won't have the best available information.
  4. Most of the cheaters will never get punished.
  5. Psychology is everything.

If you can't answer those questions and accept the unwritten rules, should you be playing?

Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.


Keen Sense of the Obvious

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The "easy" trade was selling early enthusiasm, but it didn't reap much benefit either.

  • Breadth is mildly positive (+1000)
  • Goldman is still in the red (sold my call spreads for lunch money gains)
  • BAC is slightly down as well...sold some calls and repurchased cheaper
  • TBT is up unspectacularly
  • Losers: FSLR (long a little via calls on a mean reversion/Gann number trade), POT, VWDRY
  • Winners: CIT, PCX, BNI, CPO, GOLD
Overall on the heels of yesterday's action, today is more of a win for bulls than anything else, having not given back much if anything.

The 'tells' of the market have been Crude, the US dollar, and financials (that's news?).
Here's the watch list I came in with...doesn't make it right.

Goldman Rush to Continue?

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Goldman Sachs and the US Government coin money, so what's a trader to do?Is Nike (NKE) ready to fight the gap (arrow), defeat the one-day range (circle), and capitalize on strong support or is the greater concern the consolidation at support with a head-and-shouders top looming (no position).
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The weak US dollar has supported US equities...you gotta watch the Greenback.
___________________________________________________________Will commodity ETFs like GSG feel the love?
_____________________________________________________________Bank of America is the biggest tell now (BAC)...long BAC via options.
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Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Comment du jour

In response to "bad ideas do tend to die", I received the following email:

...unless those ideas prop up the benevolence/effectiveness of the state, in which case they grow over time until they become the dominant state philosophy and cause the state to implode (Keynesian economics).

This explains it all.

Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.

SPX Gann 3 Day Chart

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My understanding of Gann was that he looked for LOW RISK trading opportunities. The 3 day TREND change occurred recently when the prior 3 day low swing was taken out. Gann would look for retracements to find lower risk entry, with stops above.Here's the SP500 chart. SPX rallied to about the 50 percent retrace today. The 90 degree turn off the 889 pivot is 919.

Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.

Fab 5.

Bill Cara had a request out yesterday for people's best five investment blogs. I enjoy writing mine, but I'm JAG (just another guy).

My top five:

Cara Community
Dave Landry
Weekly Technical Commentary
Tim Knight
Colin Twiggs

Good trading and great risk management to all.

Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice.